SSGRTs have grown by a compound average annual growth rate of 2.3% since fiscal 2010. Legal provisions provide strong bondholder protections in the form of a large 2.25x ABT based on historical revenues. After debt service payments on the bonds, GRT revenues are used by the city for general operations. The GRT is broader than a typical sales tax as it is levied on goods and services, including legal services and certain medical services although various exemptions have been approved by the state. Businesses remit the 5.225% GRT to the state, which remits the 1.225% portion back to municipalities based on the point of sale. To evaluate the sensitivity of the dedicated revenue stream to cyclical decline, Fitch considers both the revenue sensitivity results (using the same 1% decline in national GDP scenario that supports assessments in the IDR framework) and the largest decline in revenues over the period covered by the revenue sensitivity analysis. Based on the city’s 15-year pledged revenue history, Fitch’s analytical sensitivity tool (FAST) generates a 2.7% scenario decline in pledged revenues. The largest actual cumulative decline in historical revenues is an 11.2% decline in fiscal years 2008-2010. Assuming issuance up to the 2.25x ABT, well below actual current coverage, the structure could tolerate a 55.5% drop in pledged revenues, almost 21x the scenario results and 5x the largest actual revenue decline in the review period. Fitch believes that these results are consistent with the ‘AA+’ rating.
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